Voters in 36 states will decide gubernatorial elections this November, with Republicans currently holding a slim 26-24 edge over Democrats. The contest offers Democrats a chance to reclaim a majority of state executive offices for the first time since 2010.
The Cook Political Report identifies 13 of these races as competitive. Key battlegrounds include Nevada, Wisconsin, Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, and Texas. Last week, the rating agency adjusted its outlook for two major Republican strongholds, moving both Florida and Texas from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican.”
In Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott faces a tight challenge from Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa. Abbott previously secured victories by double-digit margins, but the current race has tightened considerably. A Sept. 29 fundraising email from the Abbott campaign carried the subject line “Our race is now a toss-up,” reflecting the closeness of the contest.
Texas politics have been volatile following Attorney General Ken Paxton’s primary victory over incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn. Despite winning the nomination, Paxton trails Democrat James Talarico in most polling data.
Nevada presents another significant hurdle for Republicans. Gov. Joe Lombardo has vetoed more than 160 bills approved by the Democratic-controlled legislature. The friction between the executive and legislative branches highlights the potential for divided government if Democrats gain ground elsewhere.
Iowa’s political landscape shifted after Democrats flipped two state Senate seats in special elections last year, breaking the Republican veto-proof supermajority. Senate Democrats subsequently rejected several appointments, including a nomination for the leader of the state’s Health and Human Services Department.
In Kansas, Republican state Senate President Ty Masterson leads Democratic state Sen. Cindy Holscher in gubernatorial polling. If elected, Masterson would replace Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly. Meanwhile, Vermont Gov. Phil Scott is favored to win reelection next month.
Republicans have maintained a majority of state legislative seats and chambers since 2010. However, the National Conference of State Legislatures notes that power is split between parties in 11 states. Democratic victories in Alaska, Georgia, Ohio, Florida, or Texas could expand the number of states with divided government.
Mark Jones, a political analyst, characterized the potential shift as “a rebuke of the Trump model, and especially the Republican Trump model.” Issues driving voter dissatisfaction include the Iran war, high prices for healthcare, housing, groceries, and energy.
Phil Scott offered a different perspective on midterm dynamics. “We see this in every midterm: The party in power sometimes takes a beating,” Scott said.
The Republican Governors Association did not comment on the party’s prospects for maintaining its national advantage. Spokesperson Kollin Crompton outlined GOP priorities, focusing on lowering taxes, unleashing American energy, and keeping costs down.